Boston Red Sox
@
Detroit Tigers
-120O/U: 8.5
(-110/-110)+100
As the Detroit Tigers prepare to face the Boston Red Sox on August 30, 2024, both teams find themselves in a tight battle for an average season, with records of 68-67 and 69-65, respectively. This matchup holds significance as it’s the first game of their series. The Tigers are coming off a disappointing 3-0 loss to the Angels, while the Red Sox suffered a similar fate, falling 2-0 to the Blue Jays in their last outing.
On the mound, the Tigers will start Casey Mize, who, despite being ranked as the 93rd best starting pitcher in MLB, has shown signs of being unlucky this season with a 4.23 ERA and a FIP of 3.69, suggesting he could be due for better results. Mize’s recent performance was solid; he pitched five innings of shutout ball in his last start on June 30. He faces a Red Sox lineup that ranks as the 4th best in MLB, providing a tough challenge.
Tanner Houck, projected to start for the Red Sox, enters with a more impressive ranking at 32nd among MLB pitchers. His 3.23 ERA indicates he could be a significant obstacle for the Tigers, but he did struggle in his last outing, giving up 6 earned runs in 6 innings.
While betting markets present a close contest, favoring the Red Sox with a -120 moneyline, projections lean slightly towards the Tigers with a 49% win probability. With Detroit’s offense ranking 23rd in the league and the Red Sox’s being 4th, the Tigers will need their best hitters, like Riley Greene, to elevate their game against a resilient Red Sox squad. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating expectations for a competitive matchup.
Boston Red Sox Insights
Despite technically being the “starter” in today’s matchup, Tanner Houck may not go more than a couple framess considering he will be treated as more of an opener.
Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
Tyler O’Neill – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
This season, Tyler O’Neill has experienced a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 97.9 mph compared to last year’s 92.8 mph mark.
Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
Boston Red Sox – 2H Moneyline
The Boston Red Sox bullpen grades out as the 10th-best in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
Detroit Tigers Insights
Detroit Tigers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+100)
Casey Mize has recorded a 3.72 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that focuses on the aspects of pitching most within the pitcher’s control) this year, ranking in the 78th percentile.
Explain: ERA is a bad and misleading stat. FIP is an improved version of it and gives a better estimate of a pitcher’s deserved runs allowed.
Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
Extreme flyball bats like Spencer Torkelson tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Tanner Houck.
Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
Zach McKinstry – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
Zach McKinstry hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 98th percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB’s 2nd-deepest CF fences today.
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
Detroit Tigers – Moneyline (+100)
The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 50 games (+13.65 Units / 24% ROI)
Boston Red Sox – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 23 of their last 32 away games (+12.25 Units / 32% ROI)
Ceddanne Rafaela – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-155/+120)
Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Singles Over in 26 of his last 43 games (+8.60 Units / 18% ROI)
