Kansas City Royals
@
Houston Astros
+140O/U: 8
(+100/-120)-160
As the Houston Astros host the Kansas City Royals on August 29, 2024, both teams find themselves in a competitive atmosphere, albeit in different spots in the standings. The Astros, with a record of 71-62, are in the thick of the playoff race, but they trail the Royals, who sit at 75-59 and are enjoying a solid season. This matchup is crucial as both teams aim to solidify their postseason aspirations.
In their previous games, the Astros showcased their offensive prowess with a resounding 10-0 shutout against the Philadelphia Phillies, while the Royals stumbled, falling 7-5 to the Cleveland Guardians. The Astros’ offense ranks 11th overall in MLB this season, but they excel in batting average, currently sitting 2nd, which has been bolstered by Yordan Alvarez’s impressive performance. Alvarez leads the Astros with a .311 batting average and has been particularly hot lately, recording 7 hits and 5 RBIs over the past week.
On the mound, the Astros will send Hunter Brown to the hill. Brown, ranked as the 37th best starting pitcher in MLB, boasts a respectable ERA of 3.72 and is coming off a solid outing where he allowed just 1 earned run over 6 innings. In contrast, Brady Singer, projected to start for the Royals, has had a challenging stretch, allowing 5 earned runs in his last start. Although his ERA stands at an impressive 3.38, his expected ERA of 4.47 suggests he might be due for a regression.
According to the leading MLB projection system, the Astros are favored in this matchup, with projections indicating they might score around 4.41 runs, compared to the Royals’ 4.05 runs. This offensive edge, combined with the Astros’ stronger recent performance, sets the stage for an intriguing contest in Houston.
Kansas City Royals Insights
Brady Singer – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
Brady Singer’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 starts (2325 rpm) has been a significant increase over than his seasonal rate (2263 rpm).
Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
Bobby Witt Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
Bobby Witt Jr. has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.2-mph to 97.1-mph in the past 14 days.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Michael Massey – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
Michael Massey pulls many of his flyballs (38.5% — 97th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB’s 9th-deepest RF fences today.
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Houston Astros Insights
Houston Astros – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-155)
Hunter Brown is an extreme groundball pitcher (49% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Minute Maid Park — the #10 HR venue in Major League Baseball — in today’s game.
Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
Jake Meyers – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
Jake Meyers has had some very poor luck with his batting average this year; his .232 figure is deflated compared to his .273 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
Houston Astros – Moneyline (-160)
The 3rd-best projected offense of the day in terms of overall hitting skill is that of the Houston Astros.
Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Betting Trends
Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 82 games (+15.70 Units / 17% ROI)
Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 34 games (+9.90 Units / 27% ROI)
Bobby Witt Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Total Bases Over in 32 of his last 49 games (+10.60 Units / 16% ROI)
