Baltimore Orioles
@
Colorado Rockies
-145O/U: 11
(-110/-110)+120
As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to face the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field on August 30, 2024, both teams come into this Interleague matchup with contrasting fortunes. The Orioles, boasting a record of 77-58, are enjoying a strong season and currently stand in contention for a Wild Card spot. In contrast, the Rockies are mired in a disappointing campaign with a record of 50-85.
In their last outing, the Rockies faced the Miami Marlins and fell short with a 12-8 loss, while the Orioles were defeated by the Los Angeles Dodgers, 6-3. Both teams will be looking to bounce back, but the Rockies’ struggles are evident, particularly in their pitching staff. Austin Gomber, projected to start for Colorado, ranks as the 222nd best starting pitcher out of approximately 350, a clear indicator of his challenges this season. Gomber’s ERA stands at 4.70, and he has a mediocre Win/Loss record of 4-9 after starting 25 games.
On the other hand, Albert Suarez of the Orioles has been more effective, with a solid 3.18 ERA and a Win/Loss record of 6-4 over 18 starts. Although Suarez’s xFIP suggests he may have been somewhat lucky, he possesses the capability to limit damage against a Rockies offense that ranks 18th in the league.
With the projections indicating that the Rockies might score an impressive 5.89 runs, they find themselves as underdogs with a moneyline of +120. Meanwhile, the Orioles, despite their recent loss, are favored at -140 and have a projected average of 6.62 runs. This matchup may hinge on whether Gomber can overcome his recent struggles and harness the Rockies’ high-powered lineup, which ranks 10th in home runs, against Suarez. In what promises to be a compelling showdown, the Orioles look to capitalize on Colorado’s woes and secure a vital victory.
Baltimore Orioles Insights
Baltimore Orioles – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-130)
Given the 1.61 discrepancy between Albert Suarez’s 3.18 ERA and his 4.79 estimated true talent ERA (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the most fortunate pitchers in the league this year and should see negative regression in future games.
Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
Colton Cowser – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
Colton Cowser is likely to have an advantage against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Colorado Rockies only has 1 same-handed RP.
Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
Placing 3rd-steepest in Major League Baseball this year, Baltimore Orioles bats collectively have recorded a 14.7° launch angle (a reliable metric to assess the ability to lift the ball for power).
Explain: A high launch angle generally means the hitter can lift the ball into the air well, which is a key component for power and home runs.
Colorado Rockies Insights
Colorado Rockies – Moneyline (+120)
The Colorado Rockies infield defense grades out as the 2nd-strongest out of every team today.
Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
Ezequiel Tovar – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.280) implies that Ezequiel Tovar has had some very good luck this year with his .324 actual wOBA.
Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
Colorado Rockies – 2H Moneyline
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Colorado Rockies’ bullpen profiles as the 10th-worst out of all the teams in baseball.
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
Colorado Rockies – Moneyline (+120)
The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 22 games at home (+7.40 Units / 32% ROI)
Baltimore Orioles – Run Line -1.5 (+100)
The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 66 of their last 121 games (+17.90 Units / 12% ROI)
Ramon Urias – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+510/-900)
Ramon Urias has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 16 games (+33.00 Units / 206% ROI)
