Toronto Blue Jays
@
Minnesota Twins
+165O/U: 7.5
(-115/-105)-190
As the Minnesota Twins prepare to host the Toronto Blue Jays on August 30, 2024, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions. The Twins sit comfortably above .500 at 72-61, showcasing their strength this season, while the Blue Jays linger with a record of 66-70, marking them as average contenders. The stakes are high as the Twins aim to solidify their playoff position, and a win here would help maintain momentum.
Both teams come into this matchup following contrasting results in their recent games. Minnesota faced a tough defeat against the Atlanta Braves, losing 5-1. Conversely, the Blue Jays enjoyed a solid outing, blanking the Boston Red Sox 2-0 in their last game, a performance that highlighted their pitching strength.
On the mound, Minnesota’s Pablo Lopez emerges as a key player. Despite an average ERA of 4.26, he has shown potential through a 3.37 xFIP, suggesting he has been a bit unlucky this season. Lopez’s last start was impressive, as he went 7 innings without allowing an earned run, striking out 9 batters. Meanwhile, Toronto’s Kevin Gausman has also had a solid season, holding a 4.10 ERA. However, projections indicate that he may not have the same luck going forward, as his underlying metrics suggest a potential decline.
Offensively, the Twins rank as the 6th best in MLB, leading in runs and home runs this season. Willi Castro has been their standout hitter, while Matt Wallner has heated up recently, boasting a .381 batting average over the last week. The Blue Jays, led by Vladimir Guerrero Jr., have had their struggles, ranking 15th in overall offense and 27th in home runs.
With betting odds favoring the Twins at -170, the projections indicate a solid chance for Minnesota to emerge victorious, especially given their strong lineup and Lopez’s ability to exploit the Blue Jays’ low strikeout rate. The matchup promises an engaging contest, with the Twins looking to leverage their advantages both on the mound and at the plate.
Toronto Blue Jays Insights
Kevin Gausman – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
Kevin Gausman’s higher usage percentage of his fastball this year (58.5 vs. 50.8% last year) is not ideal considering they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
Addison Barger – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)
Addison Barger is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 89% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Toronto Blue Jays’ bullpen ranks as the 8th-worst out of all the teams in MLB.
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Minnesota Twins Insights
Pablo Lopez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
Over his last 3 games started, Pablo Lopez has experienced a significant rise in his fastball velocity: from 94.3 mph over the entire season to 95.5 mph recently.
Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
Matt Wallner – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)
Matt Wallner has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 100.5-mph average to last season’s 97.1-mph EV.
Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
Edouard Julien – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
In today’s game, Edouard Julien is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 11th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 39.9% rate (97th percentile).
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 25 of their last 35 games at home (+12.90 Units / 30% ROI)
Toronto Blue Jays – Run Line +1.5 (-140)
The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 19 of their last 27 away games (+9.60 Units / 24% ROI)
Daulton Varsho – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+120/-150)
Daulton Varsho has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 34 games (+12.15 Units / 36% ROI)
