Oakland Athletics
@
Cincinnati Reds
+120O/U: 10
(-110/-110)-140
On August 27, 2024, the Cincinnati Reds host the Oakland Athletics at Great American Ball Park in the first game of their interleague series. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Reds sitting at 63-68 and the Athletics at 56-75. The stakes may not be high in terms of playoff implications, but the matchup holds intrigue, particularly with the performances of the starting pitchers.
Jakob Junis is projected to take the mound for the Reds. Despite being ranked 214th out of approximately 350 pitchers, he boasts an impressive 4-0 record and a solid 3.52 ERA this season. However, advanced metrics suggest he might have been lucky, as his xERA of 4.74 indicates that his performance could decline. Junis has shown signs of being a low-strikeout pitcher, with a 19.5% strikeout rate, which could become a factor against an Athletics squad that has the 2nd most strikeouts in the league.
On the other side, Mitch Spence is expected to start for the Athletics. His performance has been mediocre with a 4.67 ERA, and while he has better than average metrics with a 4.14 xFIP, he finds himself in a challenging situation facing a Reds lineup that ranks 5th in most strikeouts.
Recent form favors the Athletics, as they enter the matchup off a hard-fought 4-3 victory against the Milwaukee Brewers. Meanwhile, the Reds are coming off a close 4-3 loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates. Interestingly, projections suggest that despite the Reds being favored with a moneyline of -145, they may be overvalued, with THE BAT X giving them a win probability of 51%, slightly lower than expected. This implies that there might be value in betting on the Athletics, who appear to have a better chance than the odds suggest.
The game total is set at a high 10.0 runs, reflecting the potential for offensive fireworks, particularly given the Reds’ ability to hit home runs, ranking 13th in the league, while the Athletics boast the 4th best home run total. With both teams vying for a measure of respectability, this matchup could provide plenty of excitement for fans and bettors alike.
Oakland Athletics Insights
Mitch Spence – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
Among all starters, Mitch Spence’s fastball velocity of 90.3 mph grades out in the 7th percentile this year.
Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Brent Rooker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
Despite posting a .391 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Brent Rooker has been lucky given the .036 gap between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .355.
Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
Oakland Athletics – 2H Moneyline
The Oakland Athletics bullpen profiles as the 8th-best in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
Cincinnati Reds Insights
Jakob Junis – Over/Under Pitching Outs
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Jakob Junis to be limited in today’s game, projecting a maximum of 72 pitches.
Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
Ty France – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
Over the past 14 days, Ty France’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.1% down to 0%.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Tyler Stephenson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
Tyler Stephenson has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.2%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 8th-shallowest RF fences today.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
Cincinnati Reds – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-145/+115)
The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 38 of their last 62 games at home (+11.00 Units / 15% ROI)
Oakland Athletics – Moneyline (+120)
The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 15 away games (+9.55 Units / 63% ROI)
Lawrence Butler – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+350/-520)
Lawrence Butler has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 40 games (+10.65 Units / 27% ROI)
